FTTH Market Predictions for 2023-2028
The FTTH sector is currently in a phase of significant evolution, with market dynamics and technological progressions indicating a promising trajectory. The following article provides an analytical overview of the FTTH market forecasts from 2023 to 2028, highlighting the key drivers and trends shaping the industry's future.
Alternative ISPs: Pioneers in Digital Inclusion
Historically, in nations dominated by copper and cable infrastructures, alternative Internet Service Providers have emerged as significant contributors to the FTTH landscape. Their active participation in deploying FTTH in regions not addressed by major national entities is commendable. These ISPs are not merely expanding the fibre-optic infrastructure but are also playing a pivotal role in diminishing the digital divide, ensuring that previously underserved areas gain access to high-speed, reliable internet.
Projected FTTH/B Coverage in Europe by 2028:
By the year 2028, Europe is projected to witness significant advancements in its digital infrastructure, particularly in the sector of fibre-to-the-home/building (FTTH/B) deployments. The forecasts indicate that the combined regions of EU27 and the UK are set to achieve an impressive milestone of approximately 211 million homes passed with FTTH/B.
The anticipated growth underscores the commitment and strategic efforts of European nations to bolster their broadband infrastructure, ensuring that a vast majority of their residents have access to high-speed, reliable internet connectivity.
Transition to FTTH: A Strategic Move by Incumbents
In countries such as the UK, Germany, and Italy, there is a discernible shift in strategy by incumbent providers. Transitioning from traditional copper or cable networks, these entities are now focusing on comprehensive fibre rollouts.
This strategic move is not just about staying relevant; it is about anticipating and meeting the escalating demands of a digitally-savvy consumer base. Such initiatives are anticipated to be the cornerstone of future full-fibre deployments, addressing the digital disparity between metropolitan and rural areas.
An Overview of the Criteria for Broadband Deployment
Supply Criteria for Broadband Deployment in Europe:
The European region witnessed a shift in strategic plans from telecom players towards high-speed broadband deployments, especially after the impact of COVID-19. Governments have allocated public funds to deploy fibre networks, ensuring that the digital infrastructure remains robust.
Municipality and utility players have taken new initiatives to accelerate fibre development in remote areas where private operators lack incentives for deployment. Many players have demarcated copper switch-off initiatives. Furthermore, cable operators are migrating to FTTH/B, and there is a notable trend in green-field housing where FTTH is systematically deployed in any new build housing.
Other Considerations in Broadband Deployment:
The broadband landscape is also influenced by various other factors. The impact of infrastructure costs, improvements in copper-based DSL like super-vectoring and G.Fast, and advancements in cable-based networks with DOCSIS 3.1 and the upcoming DOCSIS 4.0 are significant.
There is a growing trend in network sharing agreements and new deployments based on co-investment among players. Regulatory changes at both European and national levels aim to foster a common commitment to deploy FTTH networks.
The macroeconomic environment, with teleworking emerging as a new dynamic, has led to the creation of new business models. However, FTTH rollout planning might face challenges due to buildout resource availability.
FTTH/B Subscribers and Homes Passed as of September 2022:
As of September 2022, the EU39 region reported 108 million FTTH/B subscribers and 219 million FTTH/B Homes Passed. The data sourced from IDATE for FTTH Council Europe provides a historical and forecasted view of FTTH/B subscribers and homes passed from 2012-2028. The comparison between EU27+UK and EU39 indicates the growth and potential of the FTTH/B market in Europe.
PON vs. P2P Fibre Ethernet:
PON (Passive Optical Network) is anticipated to become the mainstream technology, offering multi-gigabit symmetric speed in a more sustainable manner.
By the end of 2023, the EU39 region is projected to achieve over 108 million FTTH subscriptions, with EU27+UK accounting for 62% of it. By 2028, EU39 is expected to house around 196 million FTTH subscribers, with EU27+UK contributing 137 million.
H2: Consumer Expectations: The Catalyst for FTTH Evolution
The FTTH market's trajectory from 2023 to 2028 is poised to be influenced by multiple factors, from regulatory interventions to evolving consumer expectations. As the sector navigates these challenges, the emphasis on FTTH architecture becomes increasingly pronounced, ensuring that both consumers and businesses are well-equipped to thrive in the digital age.
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*EU39: This refers to a group of 39 European countries. While the specific countries included in this group can vary based on context, in many instances related to broadband and telecommunications, "EU39" might include the 27 member states of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and additional European countries.
*EU27: This refers to the 27 member states of the European Union. The term became standard after the United Kingdom officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, in an event commonly known as Brexit. Before the UK's departure, the group was often referred to as EU28.